the short-term factory maintenance has increased, and it is expected that the recent manufacturing will be increased again; The downstream manufacturing has improved slightly. At present, it is entering the off-season, and the epidemic situation has reappeared in various places; external demand has weakened, and exports are expected to decline. Inventory remains high, terminal demand is weak, combined with off-season and re-emerging epidemics, PVC will continue to remain in excess. At the same time, the price of PVC in the foreign market fell sharply, and the export suffered a loss. In August, the US PVC price fell below US$900 to 880, which will strongly suppress the rebound of domestic PVC price.
Supply:
The operating rate of PVC dropped by 2.2% to 75.6%. There was a batch of equipment maintenance from the end of July to the beginning of August, and the supply declined. Spot manufacturing is generally at a low level, the spot price is below 7,000RMB, and the calcium carbide price is 3950RMB so the upstream manufacturing is at a loss currently, and the supply is obviously low. Pay attention to the arrival of low-priced goods in the United States. In August, the price of the external disk was quoted at US$880, which constituted a pressure on the internal disk. There is not much room for a short-term PVC price rebound.
Demand:
Insufficient terminal demand, PVC downstream still maintains a low operation rate, although demand has slightly increased month-on-month under the "guaranteed delivery" in housing market, but real estate investment and construction indicators have not improved, superimposed on Hainan and other places where the epidemic has re-emerged, and demand recovery is slow. The demand in India and Southeast Asia is weakening, the United States may impose sanctions on Xinjiang PVC companies, and the export margin is weakening.
Inventory:
Inventory has remained at a high level recently. This week, the inventory was stable at 354,500 tons, unchanged from the previous month (previous value -0.8), 188% year-on-year, maintaining an absolute high level in history.
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