The futures delivery date in September is approaching, the large positions and high inventory will suppress the price and it will be difficult for the export price in China to return to above 1035US$/ton. On August 15, the central bank’s MLF and reverse repurchase interest rates both fell by 10 basis points, it is expected that the LPR interest rate will also decline accordingly, which will have a certain boost to the real estate market, it is expected that the demand side will improve marginally in September.
Overseas:
Formosa Plastics initially reported that the price of pre-sale in September was unchanged, and it was lowered by 20-70 US$/ ton after 3 days. It is reported that the US exports to India traded more than 10,000 tons from October to November, and China's exports are currently uncompetitive.
Supply:
The operating rate of PVC manufacturing remained unchanged at 75.4%, some enterprises dropped by 10%. In late August, 4 sets of planned maintenance devices will be added, involving a production capacity of 1.05 million tons, and the monthly maintenance loss increased to the highest in history.
Demand:
The terminal demand is insufficient, and the downstream demand maintains at a low level. The epidemic has reappeared in many places, and the demand recovery is slow. Also,the demand in India and Southeast Asia has weakened.
Inventory:
This week's inventory was stable at 352,400 tons, still at the highest level in the same period of previous years. The company's inventory days in the warehouse were 5.85 days, an increase of 0.24 days from the previous month. Due to the lack of downstream demand for goods and the warehousing receiving restrictions, the factory inventory continued to increase.
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